PackAnalyst
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Pokémon Ultra (Spicy)

Courtyard · Pokemon · $249 per pack

Typical rip?
63.7%
median · half came back above
Average?
97.7%
pulled up by the big hits
Net take-home?
–
no buyback rate published
Pulls sampled?
3,942
real reveals recorded
Where the pulls landed · card value vs. the $249 it cost
  • under 25%0%
  • 25-50%30.4%
  • 50-90%32.9%
  • 90-110%7.3%
  • 110-200%20.9%
  • 200-500%8.1%
  • over 500%0.5%

33.3% of sampled pulls came back worth at least what the pack cost. The middle 80% landed between 44.1% and 188.1%. The average sits well above the typical rip, so this pack is jackpot-driven: you usually lose, occasionally win big.

Advertised odds vs. real pulls

TierValueAdvertised?Observed?n
base50.2-74.3%61%25.2%994
common74.3-100%9%10.7%420
uncommon100-200%23%24.6%971
rare200-400%6%7.1%280
chase400-3200%1%1.5%60

Advertised figures as published by Courtyard, checked 2026-10-03. Observed frequencies from 3,942 sampled pulls. We report the gap in both directions: packs that underdeliver and packs whose own odds sell them short.

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